Where the heck is everybody?

[Loflar]

Hopefully things will be less violent from now on, however, the hospital I work in is full of wounded Ukrainians already.

So, do you have some reliable information on what is really happening? What do you think about this article, especially the quoted text of (allegedly) Kiev resident?

[RE.Lee]

I didn't really get to talk with the patients, they're mostly the ICU so hardly ready for a chat.

The article and the quoted text seem, for the most part, spot on. The situation is a mess and civil war is on the horizon. The agreement they signed satified no one and everybody started to breach it straight away. At least the violence stopped but only time will tell for how long. The problem with the situation is that the majority of Ukrainians actually are pro-Russian, so its likely any future democratically elected president will be pro-Russian as well (there might be a corrupt pro-western government somewhere along the way). And the radical elements of Western Ukraine will probably go protesting. Again. A division of the country is likely and the political consequences could be far reaching. But for the time being, as the author rightly states, everybody is in shock.

[Francis]

Yup, very good article and I agree with the author that a partition is a possibility. An interesting aspect about this case is that it is pitting the EU against Russia at a time where I very much doubt that the U.S. is willing to spend much resources on European problems. With the down scaling of American forces and the pivot to Asia, Europe is pretty much on their own in real terms. Not that it will come to anything even close to an armed conflict, but I still enjoy the panicked "headless chicken" dance that EU leaders are doing at the moment.

[Teledor]

Partition probably would be the best option at this point or perhaps greater autonomy between the north and west Ukraine and south and east Ukraine. The split, especially those wanting closer ties to Europe and those wanting closer ties to Russia really isn't one that is solvable. One group will lose, or at least feel as though they lost, whichever direction they go. A country pulling itself in two different directions doesn't really make the best policy decisions. Moreover, not integrating either with Russia or the EU isn't a great option either. It would inhibit investment by both Russia and the EU and keep Ukrainian goods at disadvantage in both markets. They have to choose. So at this point, it may be best to allow the areas to go their separate ways and integrate with the regions they want to integrate with. Otherwise, this will probably cyclical if the politicians can't find a solution - and so far I have my doubts they will.

[Giladis]

Partition is not the best solution because both sides claim whole of Ukraine and things are not as clearcut as western (or Russian) media is trying to depict.

[Loflar]

things are not as clearcut as western (or Russian) media is trying to depict.

I agree. IMHO both the western story about democratic (because they want to associate with EU, so they must be democratic by definition ) protests against pro-Russian dictator and Russian story about fascists, supported by western governments, toppling democratically elected president, are essentially propaganda. Both are based on truth and both are completely misleading.

But then, if split is not the best option, what would be? Siding with EU might provoke Russia, because it would deprive it of a western buffer zone and resources and industry of Donbass. And their army already has invitation from Crimea and Charkov. Siding with Russia might lead to civil war and import of democracy as we know it from Libya - Ukraine is said to still have big reserves of coal and also shale gas.

Maybe some deal between EU and Russia about keeping Ukraine neutral? But this would assume some foresight on side of EU officials (which they do not seem to be showing) and also disregard for will of Ukrainians.

[Giladis]

The thing is EU and Russia don't want that. Ukraine offered both of them to be neutral place a zone where both customs unions overlap. Ukraine wanted to be a doorway between east and west. It would have produced a serious boost to economy and would have brought EU and EU closer together but the EU was first to say no to such a proposal while the Russians sagely stayed silent knowing the anti-russian paranoia in some EU circles would play into their hands.

What R.E.Lee said is true, I predict that by end of 2015 Ukraine will be back in the Russian camp with major protest going on in Galicia.

[Aicanor]

EU has nor the strength nor vision at the moment to make a difference. It is wrapped up in its own problems that may not be as glaringly visible as the situation Ukraine is in at the moment, but in fact cripple all EU foreign policy. It will only lead to a great disillusionment of those people who believe EU is the solution here. Not at the moment, which I think is a failure that will bite the European Union in the long run.

[RE.Lee]

On partition: the annexation of the Crimea to Russia would be a natural thing to do. Its not ethnically Ukrainian, it was artificially joined to Ukraine in 1954 - officially as a gift from the Russian nation (right...), unofficially to dilute the ethnic elements in the country (with a view to get rid of the Socialist Republic altogether and make one big Russia). Mostly Russians live there even now and they have little sympathy for the West. This also goes for a couple of other regions. The problem is - these are the richest and most important politically locations in Ukraine. Would the EU prefer a politically stable, but poor Ukraine?

[Teledor]

Would the EU prefer a politically stable, but poor Ukraine?

This is the problem. I believe most of the heavy industry of Ukraine is in the east Russian leaning portion of Ukraine. I have no idea what is in Western Ukraine industry wise but it doesn't sound like much in terms of manufacturing, meaning they'd probably need to be a services based economy and I doubt Western Ukraine is that far along in developing that sector.

I just don't know if a "neutral" Ukraine is possible for trade agreements. EU goods with easier access to Russia is one of the things Russia was afraid of with the EU agreement turned down if I recall correctly. Easier access to goods and capital is kind of the point of these trade agreements, if you don't do that there isn't much use to it. Also, Russia eyes creating their own Customs Union and need a more developed country like Ukraine to be a part, otherwise it's just Russia and the -stans basically.

Unfortunately it's a difficult question to be answered by what seems to be corrupt officials all around. I agree to an extent with RE Lee and Giladis - the newly in power opposition will probably fracture and be ineffective. We've seen this once before with the last "revolution". That tends to be the problem with all revolutions - they tend to eat themselves once they're in power, leaving a vacuum. Hopefully, the very least that can be done is a creation of a democracy with actual checks and balances and constitution that reinforces the rule of law and is less resist to changing winds of political power. Or maybe federalism is a solution. West can be closer to Europe, East closer to Russia and have some form of internal trade agreement or something. Who knows...

[Ferretsnarf]

This site was once upon a time the focus of my life. It gave me the social interaction I craved and lacked in my real life. It was a source of "friends" I didn't have in real life. Some incidents occurred that forced me to rebuild my life.

I think a lot of the older members of the forum would consider the "Glory Days" to be a different period of time. In the end though, every online community has some degree of turnover and a new generation will come and go. I think that yearning for the glory days is a disservice to the new people in a community and can leave them feeling ostracized. New people are a good thing.

That's just a generalization. I'm not so sure about THESE whippersnappers...

[Ruerl Khan]

I didn't really get to talk with the patients, they're mostly the ICU so hardly ready for a chat.

The article and the quoted text seem, for the most part, spot on. The situation is a mess and civil war is on the horizon. The agreement they signed satified no one and everybody started to breach it straight away. At least the violence stopped but only time will tell for how long. The problem with the situation is that the majority of Ukrainians actually are pro-Russian, so its likely any future democratically elected president will be pro-Russian as well (there might be a corrupt pro-western government somewhere along the way). And the radical elements of Western Ukraine will probably go protesting. Again. A division of the country is likely and the political consequences could be far reaching. But for the time being, as the author rightly states, everybody is in shock.

I will have to ask for a clarification in the above, do you really mean to say that a goverment between now and the inevitable pro-russian goverment will be inherently corrupt? If so I think you may want to consider giving some actual sources to back up that rather broad and sweeping statement.

[RE.Lee]

I can't really give sources for something that might happen in the future. I base my prediction about the possible corrupt government on the fact that all of the previous Ukrainian governments have been corrupt. Or at least thats what I've read in the papers.

Anyway, with partition of the country taking place as we speak, this is not really important.

[Giladis]

...

I think something far more omnious is about to happen. Though we both know what I mean I just don't want to name it.

My collegues from Russia have toldm that as of friday morning local radio and TV stations have started airing patriotic songs, and across TV channels WWII movies are being shown.

I hope that I am wrong but I have lived through one war and remember both phases and this looks like Russia is preparing it's population.

[RE.Lee]

Lets hope that will not happen (though the Russian army movements and propaganda suggest its an option for Putin). So far the Ukrainian government has threaded very prudently, trying to avoid provoking the Russian army that has invaded their territory. It seems they won't oppose (actively) the anschluss of the Crimea and might even allow for letting go of the Eastern provinces (Kharkiv, Donbas...) that are being destabilized at the moment, to avoid military conflict. Question is - how will the international community react in case of these events?

[Facade19]

All of this yet another failed attempt by philosophers to intervene to curb the last man. I am sorry to sound so vague, but what did we all expect would transpire? Even if there will not be a physical conflict in the degree we are all weary off, we all are deep down aware that something is just not right anymore. Something much bigger than territorial disputes, or conflicts for natural resources, or supremacy. This entire world is beyond repairing. We have fallen from grace and grace has shunned its warming touch from us. Maybe it is indeed a pressing sentiment that this farewell is the last resolve to face the truth that somewhere along the lines where we thought we could reach for the stars, the stars were always to flickering and bright for us to even dare to dream to touch. This impeding death to Athens and Jerusalem might not occur within the next 24 hours, but it sure as heck did not spiral into this downward trend yesterday either.

I for one am glad that at least I get to spell out my despair a bit lighter nowadays. No point in being more depressed about everything and everyone for if not anything nor anyone is willing to even to take a minute to reflect and fend off this fervent propaganda unleashed so long ago that has turned something so beautiful into something so hideous, something so clear to follow to something so ambivalent and nebulous. The whole world has gone mad, including you and me, and we have no way to dig ourselves out from this quicksand. Tomorrow something else will bring us ever so close to the edge of darkness and we will still continue to drink their cool aid to forget, and not confront what we have become.

It is just too damn painful to even care anymore. My mind is at its breaking point! I cannot stand this shit anymore. Being alive. Every little ounce of beauty is torn apart by the crushing weight of despair. No matter what I write, no matter what I think, no matter who I love, no matter who I miss, no matter what I believe, it all turns into salt. And all of this, the entirety of existence validates me wishing for rest.

Peace out.

[Loflar]

My collegues from Russia have toldm that as of friday morning local radio and TV stations have started airing patriotic songs, and across TV channels WWII movies are being shown.

My favourite news server (well, more comments then news), focused on "things not discussed in Czech Republic" (which means, that it usually offers well thought counter-arguments to most popular hystery of the day, plus some news our mainstream does not mention) had series of articles, starting in October or November, about Russian army, its rearming (for example, it had quite good article about Iskander system), geopolitics from Russian point of view, exercises (themed as, for example, bombing raids on Sweden or Poland), about Russian need to expand to replace its depleted natural resources (especially oil) and so on. One of the articles, about month ago, carried similar warning - that Russian mainstream sometimes publishes articles arguing about inevitability of WW3, i.e. that Russians are being conditioned for war.

On the other hand, West backed itself into a corner, from which it can hardly criticize, since most of things done by Russia in the last month had already beeen done before by western countries, usually in more bloody way.

Anyway, I remember that there used to be Russian member on the site. His perspective could be quite interesting.

[Aicanor]

Facade19, perhaps it is time to look down to earth. It is, after all, literally made of stars. And it can survive a lit more than we can throw at it.
In fact, I believe all you write matters. It matters much more than any political situation in the world ever can. If you are Christian, you should know what I am talking about. If not, this is the thing to learn from Christianity. You can not always change the circumstance. but you can change the way you accept it. Sometimes, there is not much anyone can do, it is just like weather. You have to live through it, and not forget the sun (or stars).
Sorry if this comes out cryptic, or a little cliche, I just do not think there is a way to say plainly what I am trying to say...

[Ramesesis]

Hey, Facade! What will come will come but remember God gifted us with Free Will and told us to take care of this world. Also remember, there is no human capable of understanding the depths of Gods fury BUT even fever who can grasp and fathom his unparable ability for loving and forgiveness. But if you despair too much you do infact turn your back towards God, and mankind. We MUST Force ourselves to see a glimmer of Hope where none can be fathomed because otherwise we hand over our Free Will to others.

Shit have spilled over on Crimea and it is sad our russian friends are not active here anymore. We woulf have needed their views badly. As a swede I do have an almost genetical fear or at least sense of respect for the Russian Bear. But over the years it is also admiration for the Russian People. It is VERY few People to have it in them to fight like they did in 1941, in what was really a hopeless fight as they Lost so much of their Heavy equipment in the opening days of Barbarossa. I can only think of the fis as fighting with equal zeal and desperation, against what should have been hopeless. But somehow, in all this, Most or at least enough people did not loose Hope. And this basically saved both nations, albeit in different ways.

[Ramesesis]

This means I do not fear or hate the Russians anymore, as they did save us from such a terrible fate. But I fear Vladimir Putin and his Close circle and their advisors.

Now, Crimea is Russian and the Ukranian fleet have become insignificant. This means Only Turkeys navy remain and is in a bad position, divided as it is on two Seas. This may help Turkey entering EU without too much demand on democratic reforms. And we May have avoided a WWIII by allowing a New Sudetenland to occur. Time will tell if this worked this time.

I would personally have seen a neutral Ukraine as the best option and in a way I Believe Putin would have felt it was ok deal since it would remain a buffer.

But the EU did not want this and I think I can tell you why. Because EU is not first and foremost about trade as a mutual beneficial thing. It is about Trade and economical dependency as a way to ensure peace. This is seen as more important than economical stability. It is all about doing it so that all member nations getting so deeply dependent on each other that they simply cannot wage War on each other but Will be forced to solve everything through diplomacy.

[Loflar]

But the EU did not want this and I think I can tell you why. Because EU is not first and foremost about trade as a mutual beneficial thing. It is about Trade and economical dependency as a way to ensure peace. This is seen as more important than economical stability. It is all about doing it so that all member nations getting so deeply dependent on each other that they simply cannot wage War on each other but Will be forced to solve everything through diplomacy.

Could be. Last week, I attended a debate about Ukraine, organized by some citizen initiatives in cooperation with our social democrats, and according to the professor of international relations speaking there, this mutual dependence also works between EU and Russia, calming the situation. The EU sanctions, which get so much publicity, are essentially silly, because EU politicians know that they cannot afford anything more serious, and possibility of damaging trade is probably also cooling hotheads on Russian side. Thus, so far Russia is accepting the game by taking equally silly countersanctions.

[Aicanor]

And we May have avoided a WWIII by allowing a New Sudetenland to occur. Time will tell if this worked this time.

This time at least no one forced Ukraine to accept the dictate, it just so happened no one was actually capable of action (that would require us to act long before this point, or at least willingness to sacrifice some of our well-being and economic growth now. No 'western' government will be willing to do that and bear the consequences). This was a well calculated risk by Putin and co. I do not think WWIII is on his mind at this time, if ever. He has nothing to gain that way. But it will no doubt have very unpleasant consequences in political field for EU.

[Shannar, Sealord]

And we May have avoided a WWIII by allowing a New Sudetenland to occur. Time will tell if this worked this time.

This time at least no one forced Ukraine to accept the dictate, it just so happened no one was actually capable of action (that would require us to act long before this point, or at least willingness to sacrifice some of our well-being and economic growth now. No 'western' government will be willing to do that and bear the consequences). This was a well calculated risk by Putin and co. I do not think WWIII is on his mind at this time, if ever. He has nothing to gain that way. But it will no doubt have very unpleasant consequences in political field for EU.

Well, that all depends on how things at home go doesn't it? The Russian Economy is currently bad enough to made the rest of us look pretty good in comparison. That's usually how this sort of thing gets rolling. Let's not forget there are still Russian troops in Georgia, despite agreements on that issue. Personally I expect him to see how far he can take it, and pull back just in time to avoid a major conflict (keeping everything else they picked up along the way). It's not a bad strategy either, as most of the west is unwilling and frankly unable to risk a conflict. Hopefully he gets the timing right on the pull back, and hopefully the rest of the world doesn't let it go to far. How much is the US/EU willing to give up in favor of our own well being and economic growth? All of the Baltics? Maybe beyond? If I'm Putin I take my time on it, but I continue to test.

[Prince of Spires]

It's a tricky game he's playing. And currently he's winning. The reaction of the rest of the world realy depends on what interests they have in the country and issue at hand. I feel the reason China for instance approved of the action is that they do more or less the same thing, bring people they see as chineese back into the country. Then there is always natural resources (mainly oil), which makes a country more or less likely to be protected.

As for the baltics, that is one place I don't see Putin trying. Simple reason, they are NATO countries. And once they claim it's an invasion (which is realy is), then it becomes a very different sort of conflict. The NATO treaty is very clear on that part, see article 5, requiring member states to come to the aid of any member state subject to an armed attack.

Same thing with EU countries as well. Not much Poetin can try in those without ending up in all sorts of different trouble.

Rod

[Shannar, Sealord]

On the surface I agree fully, but the US and Russia also had a treaty with ukraine to the effect that their borders would be left as in in exchange for giving up all the nukes they had after the collapse of the USSR. They took that to mean they'd get help if it was ever needed. Turns out the US has chosen to interpenetrate it differently.

Yes, members of NATO would be obligated to come to their defense. I'm just not sure how willing they all would be, and how capable they are even if willing at this point. All I'm saying is that if I'm the Defense Minister of Latvia, I'm making plans just in case help is "slow" to arrive.

[Facade19]

In my opinion it all depends when Turkey will undertake its incursion into Syria before the Black Sea fleet (and Russia) will be neutralized in the Ukraine. But that is just my opinion.

[Prince Eldarion]

It's really nice to see some old faces here! Kor! I missed this place, hope everyone's been well. As usual i see the Ulthuan members debating better than the united nations

[Shannar, Sealord]

In my opinion it all depends when Turkey will undertake its incursion into Syria before the Black Sea fleet (and Russia) will be neutralized in the Ukraine. But that is just my opinion.

Well, there is a lot of talk about that, but I don't think it's all that realistic. All Turkey would gain from that is a hornets nest. But again, if anything does happen it'll be to distract from issues at home more than anything else.

[Loflar]

As for the baltics, that is one place I don't see Putin trying. Simple reason, they are NATO countries. And once they claim it's an invasion (which is realy is), then it becomes a very different sort of conflict. The NATO treaty is very clear on that part, see article 5, requiring member states to come to the aid of any member state subject to an armed attack.

Actually, it does not. Read it carefully: http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/off ... _17120.htm

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

There is no mandate for military action. There is possibility of military action, but "such action as it deems necessary" may also mean good advice to give up and save civilian lives.

On the surface I agree fully, but the US and Russia also had a treaty with ukraine to the effect that their borders would be left as in in exchange for giving up all the nukes they had after the collapse of the USSR. They took that to mean they'd get help if it was ever needed. Turns out the US has chosen to interpenetrate it differently.

The treaty is here: http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._ ... Assurances
It only promises help to Ukraine if it is ever attacked by nuclear weapons.

[Shannar, Sealord]

It only promises help to Ukraine if it is ever attacked by nuclear weapons.

But that is not how the leadership of Ukraine has interpreted it ever since. Read some of their statements about the current state of their military.

But in the end that's my point about all treaties, the language is so vague that there is always a way out. And even when they are more clearly worded, when push comes to shove they are actually worth about as much as the paper they are written on.