North Korea

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cidracin
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North Korea

#1 Post by cidracin »

I've been hearing a lot about North Korea in the news lately and I felt like seeing how other people felt. My understanding is that at the moment some North Korean ship is probably transporting illegal materials. If the US Navy stops the ship then NKorea says its an act of war and they will "wipe the US off the globe." The last thing North Korea should want is the war with the US. While Korea has a large army the outcome of a war with the US or or another power like China or Russia would be unwinnable. I must say that I think that KIm Jeung Ill is lucky that he supposedly has nuclear weapons or else his country wouldn't exist anymore. I mean don't the US, China, and Japan all have problems with North Korea. I don't get why the people aren't trying to overthrow the current regime. North Korea's economy sucks while South Korea has one of the worlds best economies and quality of life is better. The people of North Korea need to get a new leader or a new government or something because the way things are looking now it looks like war or a coup is in North Korea's future.
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Musashi
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Re: North Korea

#2 Post by Musashi »

No one wants war.

North Korea however want to see how far they can push it to the brink, in order to wring concessions from the interested parties.
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Prince Elileth
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Re: North Korea

#3 Post by Prince Elileth »

A war with the West is the last thing North Korea wants. What North Korea does want to do is continue to show the west that they can't be pushed around. For all they're posturing they're essentially harmless. They know if they do anything that poses a legitimate threat to the West they'll be on their own as China is incredibly unlikely to protect them due to the fact that their relationship has soured in recent years. There will be no war with North Korea. There will be no coup either. North Korea's government is incredibly stable so long as Kim Jong Il can keep the millitary behind him. The real threat North Korea poses is in the sale of their missile technology. North Korea's long been know to export their ballistic missile advances which is an issue of concern to the west. There won't be a war with North Korea unless for some reason they attack the west.
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geoguswrek
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Re: North Korea

#4 Post by geoguswrek »

I find it ironic that two western powers used the threa of long range WMD's as a reason for going to war with iraq, but when they actually KNOW there are long range WMD's in a country, they pussy foot around because the country has WMD's

No western power will be foolish enough to go into korea, they've seen it doesn't work with the people against you time and again. And unless korea does something to seriously threaten the west, there is so little to gain from entering korea, opposed to such huge risks (atagonizing a crazy man with a nuke button does seem a risk to me) that only a fool would enter.

As to the sale of ballistic technology, while modern tech is difficult to get hold of, i imagine it can't be that difficult for a power to get hold of old soviet blueprints for mid-level ballistic missiles, after all, third-world leaders have got hold of the plans for AK's, tanks, and helicopters from the old union.
this is the reason the un tries to keep such tight control on fissionable materials, they realise that it is easy to get the plans for a nuclear, or atleast atomic warhead off of the internet, and the plans for missiles (either from the net or from some ex-soviets who copied all the old files) that the only really regulatable part of such a dangerous weapon is the fissionable stuff. Atomic weapons don't even need to be well made, just made well enough they hold up through flight.
Thus the korean technology is merely facilitating something that regrettably, would be happening anyway, someone will always sell to the "wrong people" if the price is right. and if the koreans see this as one of few viable exports in a time of economic difficulty and reduced exportation, fair play to them.
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Allerion
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Re: North Korea

#5 Post by Allerion »

well, if North Korea nukes the US, N. Korea might as well jump into the ocean with a suit of armor on. cause theyve got... how many nukes? and they just invented a missile that can hit the US? not too intimidating to the country that can incinerate the planet. i think north korea is a case of a rabbit pretending to be a wolf.
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Re: North Korea

#6 Post by VictorK »

NK's missiles can maybe nick Alaska and get some fringe islands of Hawaii. NK is not a threat to the United States on its own unless proliferating its nuclear arsenal to another actor. Of course, its nuclear arsenal is pretty pitiful. I don't think they've had a successful test yet, and their nuclear fuel supplies are limited. Then again, the North Korean regime, while not crazy, has a really skewed set of preferences and priorities that make them unpredictable and perhaps capable of waging a war against the South. That would be rather unpleasant.

The key to all of this, of course, is China. If the US doesn't commit the same mistakes of the Korean War, and it's a very different climate, even that worst case scenario can be managed.
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Re: North Korea

#7 Post by dabber »

cidracin wrote:I don't get why the people aren't trying to overthrow the current regime.
For the same reason every bad government and stupid dictator in history has survived. Because the ones in charge have the weapons and the army. The "people" don't have the physical ability. In North Korea, its also likely they don't have a clue what they are missing either. When was the last time a dictator was overthrown by a popular uprising? Semi-democratic governments have resigned under popular pressure, but a real dictator has rarely been overthrown by a popular uprising. A coup d’état that brings in another dictator yes, but not an uprising.

For the same reasons no one is willing to overthrow them by force. The US took out Iraq because we knew they had absolutely no means of stopping the invasion force or hurting us directly. They were even out of skuds to throw at Israel after the first gulf war. North Korea has the means to blow the **** out of Seoul South Korea, even without the few nukes they might get to work. And the terrain in North Korea is AWFUL for fighting a quick war, as we learned in the early 1950s.
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Re: North Korea

#8 Post by EricJ »

After Team America: World Police, I don't think anyone can take North Korea seriously any more.
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Re: North Korea

#9 Post by VictorK »

dabber wrote:When was the last time a dictator was overthrown by a popular uprising? Semi-democratic governments have resigned under popular pressure, but a real dictator has rarely been overthrown by a popular uprising. A coup d’état that brings in another dictator yes, but not an uprising.
Now that's just not true. Neopatrimonial dictatorships, communist regimes and others have all been deposed by popular movements in the past few years. El Salvador, Iran, Chile, Argentina and the Eastern Bloc countries are all examples of authoritarian regimes bowing to popular pressure. It can be effective, it just takes time.
And the terrain in North Korea is AWFUL for fighting a quick war, as we learned in the early 1950s.
What are you talking about? The United States landed at Incheon in mid-September. By late October they were at the Yalu River. It all depends on who is doing the fighting.
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Re: North Korea

#10 Post by Prince Eldarion »

VictorK wrote:
And the terrain in North Korea is AWFUL for fighting a quick war, as we learned in the early 1950s.
What are you talking about? The United States landed at Incheon in mid-September. By late October they were at the Yalu River. It all depends on who is doing the fighting.
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Re: North Korea

#11 Post by dabber »

VictorK wrote:
dabber wrote:And the terrain in North Korea is AWFUL for fighting a quick war, as we learned in the early 1950s.
What are you talking about? The United States landed at Incheon in mid-September. By late October they were at the Yalu River. It all depends on who is doing the fighting.
The enemy army was nearly out of supplies before we landed at Inchon. After we landed, half the enemy army had no supplies and most of it was trapped. We faced some real fighting in the first couple of weeks after Inchon, but after we crossed the 38th parallel, many UN frontline units went days without encountering enemy fire. Not hard to advance against insignificant opposition.

A better comparison is early 1951, after the US army got a bit re-organized. We managed to advance, but it was slow. It took us three months to get from south of Seoul to the current line. It isn't like driving through Kuwait and Iraq.
VictorK

Re: North Korea

#12 Post by VictorK »

dabber wrote:Not hard to advance against insignificant opposition.
Then wouldn't it seem to be the opposition as opposed to the North Korean terrain that's the problem? I'm only suggesting that there's nothing intrinsic about fighting a war in North Korea that makes it slow.
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Re: North Korea

#13 Post by Loflar »

VictorK wrote:
dabber wrote:When was the last time a dictator was overthrown by a popular uprising? Semi-democratic governments have resigned under popular pressure, but a real dictator has rarely been overthrown by a popular uprising. A coup d’état that brings in another dictator yes, but not an uprising.
Now that's just not true. Neopatrimonial dictatorships, communist regimes and others have all been deposed by popular movements in the past few years. El Salvador, Iran, Chile, Argentina and the Eastern Bloc countries are all examples of authoritarian regimes bowing to popular pressure. It can be effective, it just takes time.
I don't know details about the other countries, but reasons why revolution succeeded in Czechoslovakia are still somewhat unclear. However, it seems that at the time
1. The governing communist party was itself split regarding future. There was wing of "old-timers" who wanted to continue policy of Breznev, and there was smaller, but more popular wing of Gorbachev followers who wanted a program of reforms - more citizen involvement, more freedom of speech, possibly some limited private business. (I have heard rumors that reformists were preparing coup.) None of these wings wanted a civil war.
2. Army loyality to regime was questionable. It might revolt (at least some units) when ordered to suppress the protests. This would lead to civil war. It is known that government was debating usage of People Militias (essentially armed forces of communist party) from countryside to suppress those "unruly spoiled city children in Prague". The problem was, that Prague also had its units of People Militias...
3. It is quite possible, that the revolution got outside help in form of some covert intelligence operation. There were strange coincidences happening, opposition was very ready and event which started it all did not really make much sense.

The point is, that regime in Czechoslovakia had probably bowed to people's demands because it was weak. Regime in NK is not weak. And another reason for people not bringing it down might be that, may be, they do not want. They are probably living in information environment emphasizing role of their government in protecting them from attacks of their enemies and poverty resulting from privatisation of their national riches by foreign powers while, at the same time, ensuring their high prestige on international scene. As usually with propaganda, these statements are not entirely untrue. Those select few, who do not believe them, are labeled enemies of country, agents of USA who want to profit from suffering of others, and as such, they are not going to get much support. This is how it works.
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Musashi
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Re: North Korea

#14 Post by Musashi »

North Korea is an Orwellian paradise, with the possible exception of always on TVs, since no-one could afford that.

One Western observer stated that schoolchildren were terrified of him, and he discovered propaganda material that depicted westerners as crushing, oppressing and killing Koreans. Their informant system is probably more deeper embedded than that of the Stasi.
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Re: North Korea

#15 Post by Raze »

North Korean culture is fascinating, especially their media. Did you know for example that every North Korean has to take his or her radio or television set to the local police station to make sure its pretuned to recieve only state channels? Foreign music and films (especially South Korean is banned by the authorities. And as for their own music scene, they have such classic titles as:
"We Shall Hold Bayonets More Firmly", or
"The Joy of Bumper Harvest Overflows Amidst the Song of Mechanisation".

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Re: North Korea

#16 Post by Tahl »

MY understanding of the North Korea issue is that it isn't a North Korea issue but a Capitalist-Communist issue. I know very little of their history but I'm of the understanding that the whole of Korea is the no-mans land of USA-China. (and the reason the US wont sign up to the anti-cluster mine agreement, because it's shoved so much into the north of NK).

Recently however China is becoming more pro-west and is NK feels it's losing the superpower support it relied so heavily upon and feels it's more and more facing the US alone through the media of South Korea as such Nuclear weapons seem the only way to ward off someone so much bigger than you.

Ironically the more they go in the nuclear line the more China is separating itself from them forcing them to go deeper etc etc.
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