Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

Discuss your tactics for the 8th Ed army book here.

Moderators: The Heralds, The Loremasters

Post Reply
Message
Author
Jedra
Posts: 469
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:05 am
Location: UK

Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#1 Post by Jedra »

I'm feeling a bit thick: I should be able to work this out. My mind is not working properly today it seems.

So i've been going overkill on PD recently, taking both teclis and the banner of sorcery for a nice +2d3 PD.

Until now I've thought that my "average" PD is around 11: 7 average for 2d6, 4 for 2d3, add them together. I just realised that I was being monumentally thick: my average roll is, of course, much less because of the 12 pd cap.

I was hoping some mathhammerer out there could help me out. What *is* my average roll? Also, out of curiousity, what would the average roll be for including the Jewel of Dusk (+1 pd)?

My brain is shutting down trying to work out how to work this out... sorry :( if one a brainbox out there is also curious or has this worked out already I'd love to know :)
ildarik
Posts: 10
Joined: Sat May 12, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: Denmark
Contact:

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#2 Post by ildarik »

Loop over the possible outcomes, sum the (capped) value and divide by the number of possible outcomes.

The answer is 10.35.
Foxbat
Posts: 678
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:46 pm

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#3 Post by Foxbat »

While you can spend time working this out, you really don’t have to as none of the items noted need to be used at the start of the magic phase.

The approach is pretty simple, if you:
- roll 6 PD or less: roll Teclis’ magic item and the BoS at the start of the magic phase;
- roll less than 10 PD and > 6: roll only Teclis’ magic item and roll the BoS later once the pool is 9 or less;
- roll 12 PD or more than 9: roll both later, but only one at a time once to pool is at 9 or less PD.

For the Jewel of the Dusk, the mage carrying it should not activate it at the start of the magic phase ever, but will activate it when the model wishes to cast where the pool contains 11 or less PD. If you activate it when the pool is at 12, you will lose the extra PD.

The above will result in the highest average number of PD being available for use in each magic phase, which will be as you already calculated, 12 (7 + 4 + 1). However, your maximum PD generation will be 12 + 6 + 1 = 19 PD, while your minimum PD generation will be 2 + 2 + 1 = 5 PD.
Jedra
Posts: 469
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:05 am
Location: UK

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#4 Post by Jedra »

oh
my
god

Foxbat, man, you just blew my mind!!!! I didn't even *think* of that you are totally right! Wow. That combo just got a lot better. And now i'd better think more about backup casters... 19 PD?? heh unlikely i know but still... that could kick some serious ass.
Xarhain
Posts: 129
Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2004 11:40 am

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#5 Post by Xarhain »

Your mode is still 11 dude. Quit trying to overthink it. Trying to work out your average roll is less useful than working out what you're most likely to roll. You'll normally have about 11 power dice. Sometimes less, sometimes a little more. The fact that your capped at 12 doesn't change the probability of rolling 11 or more dice.

Of course, if we ever get the controversial issue of when we roll for BoS etc sorted out, the whole thing goes away. As it stands, yes you could do it in tournie play technically, just about, by RAW. But your friends are going to kick you in the nuts if you do it with them.
Ptolemy
Posts: 2027
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2010 11:56 pm

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#6 Post by Ptolemy »

I still think in any tournament with opponents scoring sportsmanship, Foxbats' method (while technically not forbidden) is likely to get the screw face from most opponents and get your sportsmanship score tanked.

Don't know if that is fair or not, but probably how it will go.
[quote]Tethlis: "Most GW female sculpts tend to look like a surly transgender woman of the night, and it would be nice to avoid that if possible."[/quote]
User avatar
Musashi
Posts: 2024
Joined: Sun Apr 20, 2008 12:56 pm

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#7 Post by Musashi »

Probability tends to lack sportsmanship, anyway. And as for activation of magic items, for that the blame clearly goes to the BRB8 design team, who must have come across this phenomenon during testing and preferred just to have a neat and simple Unified Field Theory.
[img]http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1317/1015107388_6c67a9c5d3_o.jpg[/img]
[color=red]Surprise is an event that takes place in the mind of the enemy commander[/color]
[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdU1F54FEOU]Crowbot_Jenny[/url]
[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_1AfDgZttw]Sunrise[/url]
[url=http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lhrhr5JLBY1qc2rnro1_500.jpg]avatar[/url]
[url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01jrt6b/The_Castle_Series_4_Episode_5/]The_Castle_Series_4_Episode_5[/url]

[i]But this did not surprise them, for as it is written in the Great Elven Book of Knowing:[/i] Isn't life just one bloody thing after another.
mishari26
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:54 am

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#8 Post by mishari26 »

Jedra wrote:oh
my
god

Foxbat, man, you just blew my mind!!!! I didn't even *think* of that you are totally right! Wow. That combo just got a lot better. And now i'd better think more about backup casters... 19 PD?? heh unlikely i know but still... that could kick some serious ass.
uh uh uh. No Jedra no. put that back. hehe

I just want to tell you Foxbat's method is not unanimously agreed upon to be legal. it was hotly debated in another thread (too lazy to look it up and link it).

Foxbat is loopholing the fact that GW in our HE army book don't mention "at the start of the magic phase" for alot of PD generating items like BoS. however, if you look at the warhammer FAQ you can find a question that clearly shows that all PD generation has to happen at the start of the magic phase. not "during" or as a sneaky "interrupt".

As for your average, you are right it is 11 with Teclis/BoS. and going over the 12 would be expected. average means average. its the number you're most likely to land "close to". not on it exactly :)

so it's "reassuring" to have a 11 PD average, so you'll most likely have close to your full allowed PD.
Jedra
Posts: 469
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:05 am
Location: UK

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#9 Post by Jedra »

mishari26 wrote:however, if you look at the warhammer FAQ you can find a question that clearly shows that all PD generation has to happen at the start of the magic phase. not "during" or as a sneaky "interrupt".
Excepts, of course, the death magic effect... and also the BRB faq explicitly talks about generating PD later in the phase. But im sure this other thread has gone into this to death so I won't continue it.

Thanks for your help guys. And yea, I know the average isn't the be all and end all. What I actually prefer is that this combo a) raises the minimum PD a lot and b) makes it reaaaaaly unlikely to get the minimum. "Average" is more useful than mode because this is part of the average score, but not part of the modal score.
mishari26
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:54 am

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#10 Post by mishari26 »

Yes ofcourse certain special cases where its clearly stated the PD would be generated midphase:

- Death magic
- Slann's rumination or Dragonmage's Reckless
Larivee
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2010 1:08 pm

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#11 Post by Larivee »

mishari26 wrote: I just want to tell you Foxbat's method is not unanimously agreed upon to be legal. it was hotly debated in another thread (too lazy to look it up and link it).

Foxbat is loopholing the fact that GW in our HE army book don't mention "at the start of the magic phase" for alot of PD generating items like BoS. however, if you look at the warhammer FAQ you can find a question that clearly shows that all PD generation has to happen at the start of the magic phase. not "during" or as a sneaky "interrupt".
It does not state that at all. You are adding text to an item, what the FAQ "clearly" states does not apply here.
gnoblar
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:16 am

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#12 Post by gnoblar »

Agreed! The FAQ specifically references a given item, not all items.

The other thread, where Foxbat and I stuck by our intrepration of the 8th Ed rules I believe settled the debate for now. We produced a structured, mature, defendable case for the timing of dice generation. No-one was able to do the same for the opposite argument. End of story until GW change something.

I can see why some people "do not like the cheese" or disagree because "that's not how 7th did it"....
However, we're in 8th now! So forget what you thought you knew. Just play by the rules people.
Let's also not resurrect that old thread here, let's keep this in the spirit of the original poster...
mishari26
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:54 am

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#13 Post by mishari26 »

the FAQ question being talked about is this one:

Q: If I have a special rule that generates power or dispel dice at
the start of the Magic phase, when are these dice added to the
pool?(p30)
A: They are added after rolling for the Winds of Magic but
before any casting attempts have been made.

So you're saying, since Banner of Sorcery doesn't say "..at the start of the magic phase..", and says "During..".. that the above FAQ question doesn't refer to BoS.

I agree that your logic is sound. but I disagree with you that it's not what GW mean. my basis for this "psychic" presumption on GW's meaning is simply this:

can you please show me some PD generating items that state "..at the start of the magic phase.."? I'm not an expert on other armies as I've only played Highelves. and the HE items Banner of Sorcery and Jewel of the Dusk both don't mention this specific timing phrase.

so my position is that the 12 PD cap would be completely meaningless if it was meant only to cap a roll od 2D6..... how can 2D6 go over 12??? the cap is meant for cases when at the start of the magic phase you end up with 13, 14 or 15 or more PD.. then you should take those extra dice and kiss them goodbye with tears in your eyes. and keep no more than 12.

if however every other item that COULD take me over 12 (again please show me an item that states your timing phrase) can be "delayed" for after I start casting spells. then only a real idiot would cause his pool to go over 12. don't you think?
Jedra
Posts: 469
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:05 am
Location: UK

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#14 Post by Jedra »

This is getting off topic... but well, the topic is solved, so I don't really mind...

The FAQ section I was referring to was the one below your quoted (which I did not remember)

Q: Can I use more than 12 power or dispel dice in a phase even though the pool is limited to 12? (p30)
A: Yes. While the pool can never contain more than 12 power or dispel dice at any one time, some abilities can generate more dice part way through a Magic phase.

Implying that some do not generate at the start.

Also here are some obvious cases where the cap does apply without looking to magic items from other army books (which I don't know particularly well either).

a) Channeling

You roll high for PD, then roll lots of 6s on your channeling attempts... at this stage, it cannot go above 12 PD.

b) You roll 12 PD, cast a 1 PD death signature spell which causes 3 wounds, then roll well on the lifeleeching roll. Again, even though you've generated a potential 3 more PD, only 1 gets added to your pool because it would go over the cap.

Both of these clearly state when they can happen, so the cap comes into effect here.

edit:

Also, C) scroll of leeching (for dispel dice pool but still...) can only be used after a spell has been cast and so again the cap comes into effect

Also, in the BRB, forbidden rod allows you to add +d6 dice to the power pool "ar the start of the caster's own magic phase" (p504)

edit 2:

Orc's "Power of the WAAAAAAGH" ability generates PD explicitly at the start of the magic phase according to how many orc units are in close combat.

Idol of Mork has a similar effect, also stating start of magic phase. Also, Staff of Sneaky stealing is basically an expensive annulian crystal that specifies "at the start of the magic phase" (where as the annulian simply states during).
gnoblar
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:16 am

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#15 Post by gnoblar »

mishari26 wrote:can you please show me some PD generating items that state "..at the start of the magic phase.."? I'm not an expert on other armies as I've only played Highelves. and the HE items Banner of Sorcery and Jewel of the Dusk both don't mention this specific timing phrase.
Forbidden Rod - BRB item. Done. Can i go home now please?
It's specifically because the HE items don't mention this timing phrase that they can be activated at the user's discretion.

gnoblar wrote:Let's also not resurrect that old thread here, let's keep this in the spirit of the original poster...
As my post above, let's respect the forum structure and the original poster of this thread and not cloud the original topic.

EDIT: only just seen your post above Jedra - but i must say - what a legendary post it is! :D A veritable HADOKEN! of a comeback! =D>
Jedra
Posts: 469
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:05 am
Location: UK

Re: Need Mathhammer: What's my average PD roll?

#16 Post by Jedra »

not to bang on about it but... empire's Rod of Power allows you to store unused DD/PD dice and (maybe) get them back as the other kind at the start of the next magic phase...
Post Reply